A Disclaimer on the Process
Most people out there who give betting advice are trying to sell you. They use phrases like “lock”, “game of the year”, “guarantee”, “sure thing”. Whatever. That’s not what I do. Anyone who tells you they can beat point spread with more than a 60% success rate in the long run is either lying to you, or belongs in a mental institution.
If you knew with 100% certainty that you had a sound process, you would be virtually guaranteed to win money over a long enough period of time. But anything can, and will happen in the short run. So if you’re not willing to be patient, then sports betting (or sports investing) isn’t for you. There are no guarantees whatsoever, and no one can be 100% certain that their process is perfect. All we can do here is make the best possible predictions with the best possible information at hand. And by doing so, it is significantly more likely to win than it is to lose. In a day/week/month winning is not guaranteed. Even in a year it’s not guaranteed (even though I’d like to think it is).
So the bottom line is that I’m not promising anyone winners. All I can guarantee is that we will have an inherent advantage over just about anyone who bets, simply by using math, probability, and maybe a touch of subjectivity.
A good process involves solid bankroll management, which won’t change your expected value overall, but it stabilizes your returns. Let’s say you bet $100 on some games and $10 on others. If you won 55% of those bets, there’s an incredibly wide range of profits, and possibly even losses, that you could have incurred over that stretch, whereas if you were to bet exactly $50 on every game, you would certainly be profiting by winning 55% of the time. The added variance of spiking your bet amounts may give you a rush, but it’s not the wisest thing to do in terms of long term success.
It is also entirely necessary to set a bankroll of how much money you’re willing to invest in sports betting. Some people like to put 1% of their bankroll on each bet, some people put as much as 5-10%. It all depends how much risk you’re willing to take.
I fully expect to be loathed when we lose, and appreciated when we win (probably to a much lesser extent), but I’m putting this disclaimer out there to make sure everyone knows my approach. Good luck to us all.